Prediction markets

What these numbers are

Each market on Polymarket is a contract that pays one dollar if an event happens and nothing if it does not. The price of that contract, between zero and one dollar, is what this page shows as a probability. A market at 70 means the last trade paid 70 cents for the dollar, so the crowd, weighted by what it is willing to stake, puts the odds around seventy percent. Nothing on this page is computed from that price. It is the price.

Volume is the weight behind the number: how much has traded in the last day, and how much over the life of the market. A thin market's 80 is a few people's opinion and can move ten points on a small order. A market with millions traded is a price that has been argued with, and it takes real money to move it. Read the probability and the volume together, never one alone.

How to read it

• Moves matter more than levels: A market drifting from 60 to 62 is noise. A market that went from 30 to 55 in a day has absorbed news. When a figure on a card changes between refreshes it flashes green or red for a moment, so a market repricing while the tab is open is hard to miss.
• Multi-outcome markets sum to about 100: A market like a Fed decision has one contract per outcome, and the card shows the top three. The prices usually add to slightly more than 100, which is the spread the market makers keep. If the leader is at 55 and the second at 40, the call is closer than the headline number suggests.
• Long-dated markets carry a time discount: A dollar in two years is worth less than a dollar next week, and a contract that resolves in 2027 trades a few points below where the crowd's belief alone would put it. The resolution date on each card is there for that reason: the closer it is, the more the price reads as a straight probability.
• The three groups move each other: A rate-cut market repricing shows up in crypto price-target markets within hours. A geopolitical market jumping tends to reprice the macro markets around energy and inflation next. Watching all three, rather than one, is where the page earns its keep.

What it cannot tell you

• A price is a bet, not a forecast. It is what the marginal trader was willing to pay, shaped by who is on the platform, what else they can do with the money, and how long it is locked up. Markets have been confidently wrong.
• Resolution rules matter. Every market resolves on a written rule, and the rule is often narrower than the title. "Will X happen by June" can resolve no when X happened in a form the rule did not count. Read the rule on Polymarket before reading anything into the price.
• Thin markets are not representative. A market with a few thousand dollars of volume can be moved by one participant, and this page draws those markets with the same bar as the deep ones. The volume figures on each card are there to be read.
• Polymarket is not available to US persons and is restricted or unregulated in a number of other jurisdictions, including Australia. Nothing here is advice, and nothing here is an invitation to trade.