Crypto Airdrop Tracker

What the airdrop tracker shows

An airdrop is when a project hands out its new token for free, usually to the people who used it before the token existed. Projects that have no token yet are the ones that could still do this, so they are the ones tracked here.

The list joins two things. The first is every project with a live prediction market on whether it will launch a token by a set date. The second is every DeFi project with no token that already holds at least $25 million of its users' money, because a project that size is a common airdrop candidate even when nobody is betting on it yet.

Open a row to see what people do with the product, under "How to take part". It describes how the product is used, such as trading on it or depositing into it. Using a product never guarantees an airdrop, because each team sets its own rules.

How to read the launch odds

Each launch market sells shares that pay $1 if the project launches a tradable token by a date, and nothing if it does not. The price of a share is the crowd's estimate of the chance. A share at 72 cents reads as 72% odds of a launch by that date.

Most projects have several dates. The odds can only rise as the date gets later, since a launch by March also counts as a launch by June. A big jump between two dates tells you when traders expect the launch to happen.

The chart at the top ranks the twelve most likely launches. The solid part of each bar is the odds by the end of this year and the lighter part is the extra chance of a launch next year. Switch the ranking to next year to see projects expected later.

What the priced value means

Some projects also have markets on how much their token will be worth a day after it launches, measured as fully diluted value: the token price multiplied by every token that will ever exist. Those markets only pay if the token launches, so we divide each one by the odds of a launch by the same date. That gives the odds the token clears each value once it exists. The priced value is the point where those odds fall to one in two.

A launch priced at $500 million is one the market expects to open near that value. It says nothing about how much of the token any user would receive.

What this cannot tell you

• A token launch can come without an airdrop: A project can launch a token and sell all of it, or give very little to users. The odds are for a token launch, except for the few rows marked as airdrop markets.
• Thin markets move on small bets: Check the market volume column. Odds on a market with a few thousand dollars traded can swing on one order.
• No token is our reading of the data: A project is listed as having no token when none is recorded against it or its parent. A recently launched token can take a day to show.
• Money held measures deposits: A project with a few large depositors can hold more than one with thousands of small ones. Airdrops usually reward activity, not only deposits.
• Eligibility is set by each project: Nobody outside the team knows the rules before they are announced.