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LITBitcoin Mayer Multiple
The Bitcoin price divided by its 200-day moving average. Above 2.4 has meant a speculative run, below 0.8 a market on sale. Live, since 2011.
Live Computed here, daily Latest 29 Sep 2026
Mayer Multiple
1.18
Fair · −0.04 in 7d
200-day average
$71,197
BTC $83,675 · 29 Sep 2026
Overheated at
$170,874
2.4× the average, +104.2% from here
Deep value at
$56,958
0.8× the average, −31.9% from here
Today's reading1.0 is the 200-day average itself
42 days in this zone · higher than 58% of days since 2011Multiple against the Bitcoin priceBelow 0.8 and above 2.4 shaded, price on a log scale
Hover anywhere on the chart for the multiple, the price and the 200-day average on that day
Zones and what followedBitcoin's return 90 days and a year after each day in a zone
Every day since 1 Jul 2011 · 5,570 days| Zone | Share of days | Median 90d | Median 1y | Positive at 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep valueunder 0.8 · More than 20% under the 200-day average | 17.3% | −0.7% | +57.9% | 75% |
| Below trend0.8 to 1.0 · Under the average, within 20% | 21.2% | −3.1% | +47.0% | 62% |
| Fair1.0 to 1.5 · Above the average, within 50% | 43.2% | +19.7% | +138.0% | 76% |
| Extended1.5 to 2.4 · Well above trend | 14.4% | +20.0% | +54.8% | 73% |
| Overheated2.4 and above · Mayer's speculative-bubble line | 4.0% | −26.8% | −31.0% | 42% |
A description of the past, not a forecast. Consecutive days are not independent, and the record holds four cycles.
The extremesEvery stay above 2.4 or below 0.8 of five days or more
| Zone | Dates | Days | Peak | BTC then | 1y after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 0.8 | 5 Jun 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 | 27 | 0.77 | $60,772 | -- |
| Below 0.8 | 31 Jan 2026 to 6 Apr 2026 | 66 | 0.62 | $63,495 | -- |
| Below 0.8 | 20 Nov 2025 to 18 Dec 2025 | 29 | 0.77 | $84,775 | -- |
| Below 0.8 | 26 Apr 2022 to 7 Dec 2022 | 226 | 0.48 | $19,014 | +38.6% |
| Below 0.8 | 20 Feb 2022 to 13 Mar 2022 | 22 | 0.75 | $37,098 | −34.2% |
| Below 0.8 | 21 Jan 2022 to 3 Feb 2022 | 14 | 0.72 | $34,996 | −35.1% |
| Below 0.8 | 8 Jun 2021 to 25 Jul 2021 | 48 | 0.67 | $29,767 | −21.8% |
| Above 2.4 | 8 Feb 2021 to 22 Feb 2021 | 15 | 2.73 | $57,501 | −35.5% |
| Above 2.4 | 3 Jan 2021 to 14 Jan 2021 | 12 | 2.83 | $40,775 | +2.5% |
| Below 0.8 | 12 Mar 2020 to 31 Mar 2020 | 20 | 0.57 | $4,959 | +1056.1% |
| Below 0.8 | 22 Nov 2019 to 5 Jan 2020 | 45 | 0.71 | $6,609 | +223.4% |
| Below 0.8 | 14 Nov 2018 to 14 Mar 2019 | 121 | 0.51 | $3,185 | +123.3% |
| Below 0.8 | 8 Aug 2018 to 20 Aug 2018 | 13 | 0.75 | $6,136 | +84.2% |
| Below 0.8 | 17 May 2018 to 16 Jul 2018 | 61 | 0.59 | $5,859 | +110.9% |
| Below 0.8 | 29 Mar 2018 to 11 Apr 2018 | 14 | 0.70 | $6,610 | −23.7% |
| Above 2.4 | 27 Nov 2017 to 7 Jan 2018 | 42 | 3.78 | $19,641 | −83.7% |
| Below 0.8 | 18 Sep 2014 to 6 May 2015 | 231 | 0.40 | $176 | +144.7% |
| Below 0.8 | 2 Apr 2014 to 21 May 2014 | 50 | 0.65 | $367 | −35.7% |
| Above 2.4 | 7 Nov 2013 to 15 Jan 2014 | 70 | 6.45 | $1,129 | −66.7% |
| Above 2.4 | 4 Mar 2013 to 26 May 2013 | 84 | 8.26 | $231 | +92.0% |
| Below 0.8 | 9 Sep 2011 to 4 Jan 2012 | 118 | 0.23 | $2 | +458.2% |
| Above 2.4 | 1 Jul 2011 to 21 Jul 2011 | 21 | 3.61 | $15 | −56.7% |
Peak is the most extreme multiple in the stay; the price and the one-year return are taken from that day.
About this data
Updated Sep 2026Figures are shown as the source publishes them, and anything we calculate is explained below. How the data is made Report an error General information, not financial advice.
What the Mayer Multiple measures
The Mayer Multiple is the Bitcoin price divided by its 200-day simple moving average. At 1.0 the price sits exactly on its long-run trend; at 2.0 it is double it; at 0.5 it is half. Trace Mayer proposed it in 2017 as a plain way to ask whether Bitcoin is expensive or cheap relative to its own recent history, and it has stayed in use because it needs nothing but the price.
Mayer's original thresholds came from the record up to then: buying only below 2.4 beat buying every day, and readings above 2.4 had coincided with speculative runs. The 0.8 line marks the opposite condition, a price more than a fifth under its average, which has been rare and short-lived.
How to read it
- Above 2.4 has meant a run, not a top. In 2013 and 2017 the multiple stayed above 2.4 for weeks while the price kept rising, and the top came from a higher reading. The line says the market is stretched; it does not say when it stops.
- Below 0.8 has been brief and has paid: Every stay under 0.8 of any length has been followed by a higher price a year later. It has also been followed, more than once, by a lower price first.
- The 200-day average is the anchor: The dotted line on the chart is the average itself; the header shows the price at which the multiple would read 2.4 and 0.8 today, so the zones can be read as price levels.
- Peaks have been falling: The multiple reached above 5 in 2013, 3.4 in 2017, 2.5 in 2021 and under 2 in 2024. A larger market trends more slowly, and 2.4 may not be reached in the current cycle at all.
What it cannot tell you
- It is a trend measure, not a valuation. It knows nothing about holders' cost, flows or supply. The MVRV Z-Score is the page for what holders paid.
- The thresholds are one person's reading of the record to 2017. They are a useful convention, not a law, and the falling peaks show the scale drifting.
- A 200-day average lags. After a sharp move the multiple can read extreme while the average is still catching up, and then normalise without the price moving at all.
Not investment advice
The multiple describes where the price sits against its own trend. It does not say what happens next. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Questions
Is a multiple below 0.8 a buy signal?
It describes a price more than a fifth under its 200-day average, which has been rare and has preceded higher prices a year on every time so far. It has also preceded further falls first. The zone table gives the distribution; use it as context, not as the decision.
Why 2.4 and 0.8?
2.4 is Trace Mayer's original line: on the record to 2017, buying only below it beat buying every day, and readings above it coincided with speculative runs. 0.8 is the mirror condition, a price a fifth under trend. Both are conventions from the record, not properties of the market.
Simple or exponential average?
Simple, as Mayer defined it: the plain mean of the last 200 daily closes. An exponential average would react faster and give slightly different readings.
How often does it update?
One close is published per day after the UTC day ends. This page reads the series on load and again every hour, so the latest reading is usually yesterday's.