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LITBitcoin MVRV Z-Score
How far Bitcoin's market value sits above or below what holders paid, in standard deviations. Above 7 has marked every top, below 0 every bottom.
Live Computed here, daily Latest 28 Sep 2026
Z-Score
0.98
Fair · −0.11 in 7d
MVRV ratio
1.56
Market cap over realised cap
Market cap
$1.68T
BTC $83,517
Realised cap
$1.08T
Realised price $53,575
Today's readingBelow 0 has marked every cycle bottom, above 7 every cycle top
335 days in this zone · 28 Sep 2026Z-Score against the Bitcoin priceBelow 0 and above 7 shaded, price on a log scale
Hover anywhere on the chart for the score, the price and the market and realised caps on that day
Zones and what followedBitcoin's return 90 days and a year after each day in a zone
Every day since 1 Jan 2011 · 5,750 days| Zone | Share of days | Median 90d | Median 1y | Positive at 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below cost basisbelow 0 · Market cap under what holders paid | 13.5% | +14.8% | +122.7% | 99% |
| Fair0 to 2 · Modest unrealised profit | 59.8% | +12.5% | +113.7% | 75% |
| Elevated2 to 4 · Profit building | 19.4% | +3.5% | +11.9% | 51% |
| Stretched4 to 7 · Where earlier cycles ran hot | 6.6% | +45.0% | +8.5% | 54% |
| Overheated7 and above · Every prior cycle top | 0.8% | −41.8% | −61.2% | 20% |
A description of the past, not a forecast. Consecutive days are not independent, and the record holds four cycles.
The extremesEvery stay above 7, and every stay below 0 of five days or more
| Zone | Dates | Days | Peak Z | BTC then | 1y after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 0 | 19 Aug 2022 to 12 Jan 2023 | 147 | -0.36 | $15,758 | +132.7% |
| Below 0 | 13 Jun 2022 to 26 Jul 2022 | 44 | -0.25 | $19,014 | +38.6% |
| Above 7 | 19 Feb 2021 to 21 Feb 2021 | 3 | 7.15 | $57,501 | −35.5% |
| Below 0 | 12 Mar 2020 to 18 Mar 2020 | 7 | -0.20 | $4,959 | +1056.1% |
| Below 0 | 19 Nov 2018 to 1 Apr 2019 | 134 | -0.49 | $3,185 | +123.3% |
| Above 7 | 6 Dec 2017 to 19 Dec 2017 | 14 | 10.09 | $17,032 | −80.2% |
| Below 0 | 17 Dec 2014 to 22 Oct 2015 | 310 | -0.60 | $176 | +144.7% |
| Below 0 | 29 Oct 2014 to 4 Nov 2014 | 7 | -0.06 | $324 | +1.7% |
| Above 7 | 18 Nov 2013 to 4 Dec 2013 | 17 | 9.58 | $803 | −56.1% |
| Above 7 | 27 Mar 2013 to 9 Apr 2013 | 14 | 10.66 | $231 | +92.0% |
| Below 0 | 14 Feb 2012 to 8 Apr 2012 | 55 | -0.18 | $4 | +538.5% |
| Below 0 | 9 Sep 2011 to 3 Jan 2012 | 117 | -0.69 | $2 | +437.9% |
| Above 7 | 8 Jun 2011 to 8 Jun 2011 | 1 | 7.68 | $29 | −80.8% |
| Above 7 | 13 May 2011 to 13 May 2011 | 1 | 7.17 | $8 | −39.2% |
Peak Z is the most extreme reading in the stay; the price and the one-year return are taken from that day.
About this data
Updated Sep 2026Figures are shown as the source publishes them, and anything we calculate is explained below. How the data is made Report an error General information, not financial advice.
What the Z-Score measures
Every bitcoin was last moved at some price. Add those up across all coins and you have the realised capitalisation: what the current holders, in aggregate, paid. Market capitalisation is what the coins are worth now. The difference between the two is the unrealised profit or loss sitting in the network, and the MVRV Z-Score expresses that difference in standard deviations of market cap, so a reading of 7 in 2021 is comparable to a reading of 7 in 2013 despite the price being a hundred times higher.
The score is useful because holders behave differently depending on whether they are deep in profit or under water. Far above realised value, sellers have every reason to realise gains and the market has historically been near a top. Below it, the average holder is losing money, selling has usually been exhausted, and the market has historically been near a bottom.
How to read it
- Above 7 has marked every cycle top: 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021. It has never been a precise day, but the market has not stayed there long, and a year later the price has been lower each time.
- Below 0 has marked every cycle bottom: Market cap under realised cap means the average coin is held at a loss. Those stays have been short and have preceded the best entries in the record.
- The middle is where most of the time is spent: Between 0 and 4 the score says the market is in profit but not extended. Read the direction and the price together rather than the level alone.
- Peaks have been getting lower: 10.7 in 2013, 10.1 in 2017, 7.2 in 2021, 3.4 in 2024. A larger, deeper market moves fewer standard deviations. A future top may not reach 7.
What it cannot tell you
- It is a Bitcoin measure. It says nothing about any other asset, and nothing about the timing of the next move within a zone.
- The zone boundaries are conventions drawn from four cycles. Nothing forces the fifth to respect them, and the falling peaks suggest it may not.
- Realised cap counts coins that were lost years ago at the price they last moved. That understates what active holders paid, and the effect is not constant over time.
- Standard deviations are only as good as the history they are drawn from. An expanding window means the score's scale changes slowly as the record lengthens.
Not investment advice
The Z-Score describes where the market sits relative to what holders paid. It does not say what happens next. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Questions
Is a score below zero a buy signal?
It describes a state in which the average holder is under water, and in the record so far that state has coincided with cycle bottoms. It has also lasted for months while the price kept falling. The zone table gives the distribution of what followed; use it as context, not as the decision.
Why does your number differ slightly from other sites?
Realised cap is estimated from the blockchain and each provider does it a little differently, and some use a sample rather than a population deviation. The differences are small and the shape of the series is the same. This page states its construction so you can compare.
What is the MVRV ratio, as opposed to the Z-Score?
The ratio is market cap divided by realised cap: 2 means the market is worth twice what holders paid. The Z-Score is the difference between the two in standard deviations, which makes cycles of different sizes comparable. The ratio is shown in the header for reference.
How often does it update?
One figure is published per day after the UTC close. This page reads the series on load and again every hour, so the latest reading is usually yesterday's.